Electoral Votes Map and Calculator

[Mac]

If you are interested in predicting the outcome of the 2008 US Presidential Elections, here is an Electoral College Calculator:

www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/calculator.html

And here is an interactive map to play with:

www.270towin.com/

[Mac]

The first thing we should strive to do, if we want to make as accurate of a prediction about the up-coming election in November, is to attempt to disassociate ourselves from our personal beliefs and agendas. Predictions based upon whether we like a candidate or party has little to do do with the reality of the mindset of a nation. Such predictions only serve to show a one-sided view.

In 2004 there were anti-Bush and anti-War people pressing their agendas, some of them decided to make their Election Predictions. In their predictions they would take the premise that Kerry would win because the person making the prediction was anti-Bush or anti-War, therefore the majority of the people in the US were anti-Bush or anti-war to the point of not voting for Bush. These people then tried to manipulate the facts and polls to justify the outcome they wished to happen. Instead they should have done the reverse... allow the facts to dictate the end result of their predictions. Knowing the truth, or most likely truth, is better for making the necessary changes than deluding oneself and then waking up surprised or angry because the outcome of the election was not as they wished.

So what are the facts?

Method of choosing our President: Know how the President of the US is selected, or have the basic concept. The US never have chosen it's president by the National Popular vote, instead our states have a certain number of electors, who collectively are known as the "Electoral College" (EC), and they cast they choose the president. In most cases, if not almost every case, the Electoral College will grant their states Electoral Votes (EV) to the winner by popular vote in their own states.

What is considered a "State": For the purposes of the Presidential Election, the 50 U.S. States are considered a "State. In addition Washington DC is considered a state and is given the minimum number of EV that a state is given. Right now that number is 3.

Historical Voting Records: Many sites, such as the 270 to win site or David Liep's Site, will give you the historical voting records for the state. They will tell you how that state voted in the past and from this you can deduce "Trends". For example: Since 1964, Washington D.C. has consistantly voted for a Democrat in the presidential election. The trend for DC will be Democrat. On the other hand California goes through cycles where they will vote Republican, then vote Democrat, then vote Republican, then vote Democrat. Since 1992, California has consistantly voted Democrat in the Presidential Election. The trend for California is that they will vote Democrat.

Polls: Using Polls for data is often necessary, but tricky. Too many people will go by the latest poll, not realizing that most of the better polls will poll different people during the polling period. Sometimes a poll will pick up some of the same people, but other polls try to get new people each time. When using the polls, try to look at the trends from past polls and add those in with the current ones made by the same polling organization. Do not cross polls, for example don't try to include what Rasmussen will say with what Gallup says. Keep each set of results separated from each other. Also, don't fall victim to internet polls. In many cases these polls have no restrictions for age, eligibility to vote, or how many times a person can vote. They can be highly inaccurate and misleading.

Listen to the people: The internet message boards are a good place to hear what the people have to say about issues and candidates, however the trouble is that many of the people are not going to vote in the US Election for one reason or another. This is especially true of non-US Citizens on the net. In many forums you'll see Aussies, Brits, Canadians, Europeans, et al. discuss US Politics and our Elections.. sometimes they get quite vocal, but the trouble is they can't vote. You also have to be leary of others as well because some of those who give their opinion are too young to vote, or ineligible for one reason or another. Still the Internet is a good way to hear what people have to say. Also you can talk to relatives, the people around you, read the opinions pages in the newspaper, glean information from the various news outlets, etc. Compare what you hear with what the official media is saying, and what the polls say... then dismiss it all as a major factor. lol Actually use all this information as you use the polls.. as background data or filler.

Listening to the Media: For these purposes, the media includes the news, talk shows, and even internet web sites. Realize that most of these people have agendas and bias.. but listen to what they say and try to weed out the garbage. You can get alot of good information, even from Rush Limbaugh, once you get to the bare facts of what is being said and do away with the political chest poundings.

There are other factors you may wish to consider as well, this all depends on how "In-Depth" you wish to get in your projections.

The next message will walk us through a prediction, from the example I give you may glean other aspects of making a good prediction.

[Mac]

This is a walk-through of an example prediction. The Facts and Figures may not add up properly or be 100% correct. The emphasis is on the method, and not the results. In your prediction, please pay more attention to the results and your figures for an accurate prediction.

It is almost April, 2008 and far too early to give a good final prediction, however it's not too early to begin your base predictions so that you don't have to do all the work later in the election period. As the months get closer to November, you may adjust your prediction many times over and on the day before the election, you can post your final prediction.

The first thing I do is find a site which has an interactive map of the US designed for election predictions. In an earlier message I gave such a site. I also find a site that has an electoral college calculator. I also provided a site for this. In past years there were sites which gave you both, plus it tied into other sites with polls and other related information to utilize. I think David Liep offered such a site in the last election, but I can't remember for sure who offered the site. When I find such a site, I will post it here.

First, let's choose the "Sure bets".

Understand the fact that there are really no "Sure Bets" in life, especially when elections are involved. We can still utilize the term with the understanding that it is not a 100% sure thing, but it may be very close to it.

The first place I have to choose as a 'Sure Bet" is Washington D.C. In it's history, DC has never voted for a Republican candidate for President. DC is a very liberal place and it is almost 100% sure that it will continue to vote Democrat. Does anyone disagree with this idea and why?

Now go and find DC on the map (it's an inset to the right of the US Map) and turn it blue by clicking on it. You will see in the little graph under the map that the Dems are ahead in the election by 3 votes.

Next, at this point you might want to take a sheet of paper and make 4 columns. label them as "Strong Dem", "Weak Dem", "Strong Rep", and "Weak Rep". In these columns you can list the "state" that applies. Under "Strong Dem" you can place Washington DC. I will not keep reminding you to mark these states.

The next thing I do is to scroll down the map page and look at the voting history section for all of the states to get a bead on their voting record, in this way I have half an idea of which state I want to pick next. I started with the New England States, then proceeded to the Mid-Atlantic States, the Southern States, etc.

What I find is that since 1968, the following states never voted Democrat: Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Alaska. So I mark all these states tenatively as Red States. The amazing thing is that no state, other than Washington DC, has ever constantly voted Democrat since 1968.

At this point the EV (Electoral Votes) Count stands at Republicans 63, Democrats 3.

Next I find out which states the Candidates represent. What I find is that Arizona is the home of Senator John McCain, Illinois is the home of Senator Barack Obama and New York is the home of Senator Hillary Clinton.

I look at Arizona's voting record and find that AZ only voted for a democrate once in past 40 years. For this I use another site:

David Liep's Atlas of US Presidential Elections
uselectionatlas.org/

That Democrat and that candidate was Bill Clinton in 96. I mark Az as a Red State.

I then check the state of Illinois and find it voted Republican for a straight 20 years, however in 1992 they turned Democrat. I mark IL as a Blue State.

Next I go to the great state of New York. I find that 1984 was the last year New York voted for a Republican President and it has only voted Republican in 3 out of the last 10 elections. I mark NY as a Blue State.

I then go to a method I call "The Home State Advantage". Usually a candidate is most popular in his or her home state, but not always. I go to see how many times a Candidate was voted into office for the state they hail from and look for trends. I find that in Illinois, New York and Arizona our candidates are "safe". I see no need to change these states from their historical voting record.

The EV Count now stands at Republicans 73, Democrats 55. The Dems have won 3 "States" and the Republicans won 12.

The next place I will look at is "our home State". This is different from the "Home State Advantage" for what this method does is allow us to look at whatever state we are living in and add in our perspectives for that state. We should use not only the polls for our states, but also what we hear on the street and see in the media. If we are fair, we are often a better judge of the mood of our areas than some pundit on Television or some one who is from a state a thousand miles away and depends upon only one aspect of life in our areas.

I am from Arizona, but I was born and raised in Pennsylvania. I haven't been back to Pa in 28 years, but I still have family back there and I do pay some attention to the news from that area. Since I've already done Arizona, I will pick Pennsylvania as my home state as a way to show others about this part of the prediction methodology. Someone from PA might disagree, but remember I am not creating a true prediction.. I'm just showing some of the things we should do when making our predictions.

I suspect that Pennsylvania will probably vote Democrat this November. Sometimes the elections are fairly close, but Pennsylvanians have been voting for Democratic candidates since 1992 and out of the last 10 elections, they voted democrat 6 times. I mark Pa as a Blue state for this election.

You will probably leave Pa. as a blank, to be considered later, instead you will anaylyze your state. If you are from New York, Illinois, Washington DC, or Arizona... you might just research Pa now and be done with it.

The numbers now show the Democrats with 76 EV and the Republicans with 73 EV. Your count may be different because you chose another state.

At this point we have to go to the Voting Records to see what the other states have voted in the past 10 elections or so. We can use David Liep's site for a more detailed analysis or we can simply use the ones on the Projection Map.

I start in New England and basically use the same process as above. I look at the states in the area and award them a Red or Blue State status in accordance with their voting record. I also did some free-lancing, since I did this before. A part of my free-lancing is giving a state a different status.

For example, I should give New Hampshire away as a Red State.. but later I would change the state over to blue because of sentiments I hear in the media about NH that would cause me to think that despite their voting record.. they will vote Democratic this year. I can change this back later if I see the polls and enough comments made on the net showing me otherwise.

To summarize, I give each of the New England states a Blue State status, along with New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, California and Hawaii. The rest of the states I mark as Red States.

This, amazingly, gives each the Democrats and Republicans 269 EV each... not enough to win the presidency. It also gives the Blue States 22 states and the Republicans 29 states.

I am happy with this as a base prediction because it shows the political landscape of America fairly well. McCain is coming on strong and in many polls, as well as in the media, he has a real chance of winning the November election. On the other hand the Dems are too busy fighting each other over trivial differences and neither candidates look like the star of the democratic party. Once the Dems sort themselves out, they may be a formidable force and zoom ahead of McCain... but we can't use facts from the future to determine our predictions of today, can we? We will just have to wait and see and this base prediction should serve as a good start.

Next.... The Polls

[Mac]

Using Polls in your prediction:

Anyone can conduct a poll and they can warp their findings to whatever end result they wish to show. It's not all that hard. In addition, even the best polls only poll a small percentage of the people and that data is assumed to be a cross-section of the community, city, state or nation.

The bottom line is that the only opinion that matters in an election is the one taken on Election Day in the voting booths.... all else is simply someone's opinion.

So you have to be careful when using polls and you only take the polls as being a general trend or a loosely based fact of how the people of any given area think. The best polls, which I have found, are: Gallup, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen Reports. I also found that RealPolitics has an excellent site for polling data. There is one other place which is good on Polls and that is:

SurveyUSA (McCain vs. Obama 03/06/08)
www.surveyusa.com/ECV_50-State_results_030608_vs_Obama.html

I use SurveyUSA in the predictions being done in this set of messages.

Legend used in the poll extracts:

Note: If you wish, check the color code for accuracy... there may be a couple of entries colored differently than the Legend shows.

Maroon = McCain leads both Obama and Clinton by 10 percent or more.
Red = McCain leads over one opponent by 10 percent or more, but leads over the other by 4 to 9 percent.
Orange = McCain leads over one Dem by 4% or more, but other candidate is with in 4%.
Black = Poll Results show all Candidates with in 4% of each other.
Green = McCain wins versus one Dem, but loses against the other. (Plus or minus 4% are considered ties).
Teal = One Dem leads McCain by over 4%, but other candidate is within 4% of McCain.
Blue = One Dem leads McCain by 10 percent or more, while other Dem is 4 to 9 percent over McCain
Navy = Obama and Clinton over McCain by 10 Percent or more.

The Poll Results:

Alabama: McCain (54%), Obama (40%)/McCain (51%), Clinton (41%)
Alaska: McCain (48%), Obama (43%)/McCain (56%), Clinton (34%)
Arizona: McCain (51%), Obama (39%)/McCain (54%), Clinton (39%)
Arkansas: McCain (53%), Obama (33%)/Clinton (51%), McCain (40%)
California: Obama (51%), McCain (40%)/Clinton (50%, McCain (40%)
Colorado: Obama (50%), McCain (41%)/McCain (48%), Clinton (42%)
Connecticut: Obama (55%), McCain (34%)/Clinton (50%), McCain (40%)
Delaware: Obama (50%), McCain (41%)/Clinton (46%), McCain (41%)
Florida: McCain (47%), Obama (45%)/Clinton (51%), McCain (42%)
Georgia: McCain (54%), Obama (41%)/McCain (56%), Clinton (35%)
Hawaii: Obama (61%), McCain (31%)/Clinton (43%), McCain (39%)
Idaho: McCain (52%), Obama (39%)/McCain (63%), Clinton (27%)
Illinois: Obama (60%), McCain (31%)/Clinton (48%), McCain (37%)
Indiana: McCain (50%), Obama (41%)/McCain (53%), Clinton (36%)
Iowa: Obama (50%), McCain (41%)/McCain (46%), Clinton (41%)
Kansas: McCain (50%), Obama (41%)/McCain (51%), Clinton (42%)
Kentucky: McCain (54%), Obama (33%)/McCain (50%), Clinton (41%)
Louisiana: McCain (54%), Obama (41%)/McCain (51%), Clinton (41%)
Maine: Obama (53%), McCain (39%)/Clinton (48%), McCain (42%)
Maryland: Obama (53%), McCain (40%)/Clinton (49%), McCain (40%)
Massachusetts: Obama (49%), McCain (42%)/Clinton (55%), McCain (37%)
Michigan: Obama (46%), McCain (45%)/McCain (44%), Clinton (44%)
Minnesota: Obama (49%), McCain (42%)/Clinton (47%), McCain (43%)
Mississippi: McCain (54%), Obama (41%)/McCain (51%), Clinton (42%)
Missouri: McCain (48%), Obama (42%)/McCain (48%), Clinton (44%)
Montana: McCain (47%), Obama (39%)/McCain (53%), Clinton (33%)
Nebraska: McCain (45%), Obama (42%)/McCain (57%), Clinton (30%)
Nevada Obama (46%), McCain (41%)/McCain (49%), Clinton (41%)
New Hampshire: Obama (46%), McCain (44%)/McCain (49%), Clinton (41%)
New Jersey: McCain (43%), Obama (43%)/Clinton (47%), McCain (42%)
New Mexico: Obama (50%), McCain (43%)/McCain (47%), Clinton (47%)
New York: Obama (52%), McCain (38%)/Clinton (55%), McCain (33%)
North Carolina: McCain (47%), Obama (45%)/McCain (49%), Clinton (41%)
North Dakota: Obama (46%), McCain (42%)/McCain (52%), Clinton (35%)
Ohio: Obama (50%), McCain (40%)/Clinton (50%), McCain (40%)
Oklahoma: McCain (57%), Obama (34%)/McCain (50%), Clinton (42%)
Oregon: Obama (49%), McCain 41%/McCain (48%), Clinton (43%)
Pennsylvania: McCain (47%), Obama (42%)/Clinton (47%), McCain (46%)
Rhode Island: Obama (53%), McCain (38%)/Clinton (54%), McCain (37%)
South Carolina: McCain (48%), Obama (45%)/McCain (48%), Clinton (42%)
South Dakota: McCain (47%), Obama (43%)/McCain (52%), Clinton (40%)
Tennessee: McCain (54%), Obama (38%)/McCain (46%), Clinton (46%)
Texas: McCain (47%), Obama (46%)/McCain (49%), Clinton (42%)
Utah: McCain (50%), Obama (39%)/McCain (65%), Clinton (27%)
Vermont: Obama (63%), McCain (29%)/Clinton (49%), McCain (39%)
Virginia: McCain (47%), Obama (47%)/McCain (50%), Clinton (40%)
Washington: Obama (52%), McCain (38%)/McCain (48%), Clinton (44%)
West Virginia: McCain (53%), Obama (35%)/Clinton (47%), McCain (42%)
Wisconsin: Obama (51%), McCain (40%)/Clinton (48%), McCain (44%)
Wyoming: McCain (54%), Obama (35%)/McCain (61%), Hillary (28%)

EV from Poll Summary:

Obama: 236
McCain: 163
With-in 4%: 139

If you add North Dakota to Obama and South Dakota along with South Carolina to McCain because they are at 3% and 4% difference... then you get:

Obama: 239
McCain: 179
With-in 2%: 125

The Remaining states are: Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

McCain: 230
Clinton: 212
With-in 4%: 96

If you add Minnesota and Wisconsin to Hillary, and Missouri and Washington to McCain.. the new totals are:

McCain: 234
Clinton: 250
With-in 1%: 54

The remaining states are Tennessee, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Michigan. According to the poll these are all

Comparing the Base Prediction with Polls:

The first step is to always check your work for accuracy, make sure you transpose your numbers and information correctly and then double check any math you do. For the purposes of this post, I didn't check everything as I would normally do... and I know there has to be mistakes. Take this information as a guideline for your own prediction and not as 100% fact. If you use what I have here, double check my information for accuracy. Don't be shy about pointing out mistakes for my main concern was in the points being made and not so much in the data itself.

The second step is to find a chart showing the various degrees of votes. There are sites which have a breakdown, but I like things simple -yet not too simple. My rankings go something like this:

Ranking	Poll % Difference
Strong Dem	over 10%
Moderate Dem	5% - 9%
Weak Dem	1% - 4%
Tied	0
Weak GOP	1% - 4%
Moderate GOP	5% - 9%
Strong GOP	over 10%

For the above chart I will see how much of a difference there is in the polls between the two opponents. In a case like the Dems have with Hillary and Obama, I will simply take the two differences they have with McCain and add them together.. then divide by two. I will then use that number as my determining factor.

For example, let's say a state says McCain would beat Hillary by 10%, but beat Obama by 8%. The difference would be 9%... That would make that state a Moderate Republican state. On the other hand if Obama is predicted to defeat McCain my 10%, but McCain is expected to defeat Hillary by 6%, I give Hillary a minus 6 and add that to Obama's number... making the spread 16%.. I then divide by 2 and get 8%.. so that would make the state a Moderate Democratic State. When doing this, please remember that when a candidate drops out, you must correct your figures.

For the historical data I like to go back to 1960, about 12 Elections. I then talley up how many times that state voted Republican or Democrat. I will add in parties that are similar to the Republican or Democratic parties to the closest party.

Ranking	Historical Data
Strong Dem	11 -12
Moderate Dem	9 - 10
Weak Dem	7 -8
Moderate	6 -6
Weak GOP	7 - 8
Moderate GOP	9 - 10
Strong GOP	11 -12

The third thing to do is remember to not reinvent the wheel everytime you want to revise your information. I personally think that once you set up your information then there is really no need to revise it until around September or November when it gets to be one on one... and closer to the election. At that stage you need to recheck the polls and adjust as necessary. Don't be so concerned over "exact figures", by this I mean if Barack was expected to win in April, by 5 or 10% and in September or October he is expected to win by 7 or 14%... then don't worry about it - a win is a win. He won't get any more EV than he would have before. Only be concerned if the candidate falls under the 5% or 3% margin of error you set for your prediction.

There is a tip to use here, don't make your prediction and forget about it. As you see fit and have time, make revisions as necessary. Let's say Hillary is expected to win right now in Pennsylvania by 1%. Now let's say that the figures show that only 84% of the people polled were decided voters. When May or June rolls around and you see the polls for Pennsylvania say that Hillary has a 10% or 15% lead over McCain and 94% of those polled are decided... then revise your data for Pennsylvania. In September you might see that Hillary only has a 8% Margin, but she is still well ahead of the opposition and you might not have to bother changing your data again on that particular race. This idea might save you some time in revising your prediction closer to the election.

[zi]

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